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你可能喜欢Buy high, sell low 高买低售 - 经济学人的日志,人人网,经济学人的公共主页
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Buy high, sell low 高买低售
Privatising Britain&s banks 英国银行私有化
Buy high, sell low 高买低售
Why the government should sell the banks it nationalised, and fast 政府为何应出售过去收归国有的银行,而且还得尽快出售?
WHEN, at the height of the financial crisis in late 2008, investors and creditors started pulling money out of Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Britain&s economy teetered along with its banks. &The game was up,& Alistair Darling, then the chancellor of the exchequer, later noted in his autobiography. Britain, which since Margaret Thatcher&s privatisations had been a standard-bearer for free markets, soon found itself the partial owner of two of its largest banks. In 2008 and 2009 it pumped &46 billion ($71 billion) into RBS and another &20 billion into Lloyds Banking Group to prop them up.
在2008年金融危机最严重时投资者和债权人开始从苏格兰皇家银行撤资,英国经济同其银行业一起经受了困难。时任英国财政大臣戴里德后来在自传中写到&英 国已经玩儿完了&。自玛格丽特.撒切尔的私有化政策以来英国一直以自由市场的旗手自居。但在2008年和2009年英国政府先后向苏格兰皇家银行和劳埃德 银行注资460亿英镑(710亿美元)和200亿英镑后,政府很快发现自己已经部分拥有了这两家国内最大行。
Almost five years later the state still holds an 81% stake in RBS and a 39% share in Lloyds&a position that feels increasingly awkward. In a speech on June 19th George Osborne, the chancellor, proposed to begin slowly selling down the government&s shareholdings, starting with Lloyds, the healthier of the two banks, with the aim of getting back at least as much as was put into them. A sale of RBS is some way off, he explained. This leisurely approach is mistaken. A faster sale, even at a loss, would do far more to benefit the economy than would holding out for a rise in their shares.
直到五年后的今天英国政府仍然分别控制着这两家银行81%和39%的股份。这一状况使政府日感尴尬。英国财政大臣乔治.奥斯本在6月19日一次讲话中提出 政府将缓慢出售银行股权,以期至少收回当时投入的资金,最先出售的是情况较好的劳埃德银行。奥斯本解释出售苏格兰皇家银行还有待时日。这种缓慢的举措是错 误的。相对于苦苦等待银行股票升值,快速甚至亏本出售将会给英国经济带来更多好处。
It would appear to be a terrible time to sell. By some reckonings shares in European banks are as cheap as they have been since the early 1990s. RBS shares change hands on the stockmarket at about half of the bank&s book value. An economic recovery would make the banks more profitable. If they were to pay dividends again they would be more attractive to institutional investors. Eventually bank regulation will settle down (see article). The government would look foolish if shares in RBS and Lloyds were to rocket after the sale, delivering stupendous profits to their new owners.
有人认为现在的时机极不利于出售。欧洲银行股票跌至20世纪90年代末期以来的最低水平。苏格兰皇家银行股票在证券市场上的转手价格只有其面值的一半。而 经济复苏将会使银行获利增加,如果银行能再有能力分红就更能吸引机构投资者,最终银行监管政策就会结束。如果政府出售苏格兰皇家银行和劳埃德银行股权后股 价飞涨、后手股东赢取暴利,那政府可就傻眼了。
But this is hardly a sure bet. Markets may be fickle at times, succumbing to irrational exuberance or depression, but over time they do a passable job of establishing value. If it were obvious that the banks were deeply undervalued, speculators would be buying them now and driving up their prices. Instead their shares reflect large uncertainties, ranging from a deeper economic slowdown and a collapse in property prices to the possibility that hidden losses may still lurk on their balance-sheets. The one point in time when the shares were undeniably cheap was when the banks were about to topple over. That was the time to drive a hard bargain.
但这一赌注几乎毫无胜算。由于无规律的繁荣与萧条,市场情况变幻莫测,但长时间来看市场是可以维持价值稳定的。如果银行价值真的被低估的话那投机者们现在 就应大举买入银行股票并抬高价格。而实际情况是,银行股票有着着很大的不确定性,包括经济衰退加剧、房地产价格跌落以及隐藏在银行资产负债表中的潜在损 失。只有银行倒闭之时才是其股价绝对低廉之日,到那时才能抄底杀价。
And the banks are not passive investments, like bars of bullion, which can be left to gather dust. They are at the heart of Britain&s economy. Its health depends on theirs. When the government first nationalised the two banks it promised to manage them at &arm&s length& and to allow them to operate as if they were in private hands. But it has been unable to resist the temptation to meddle. The state has weighed in on the pay of senior staff of RBS and on its commercial strategy. In early June it shoved out RBS&s boss Stephen Hester, prompting a sharp fall in the bank&s shares.
跟金条具有贮藏功能一样,银行也并非被动投资。银行是英国经济的心脏,银行的好坏决定这英国经济的健康与否。政府在当初国有化这两家银行是保证不会过多干 涉银行管理并允许其按以前私有的方式运...
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