1,814被浏览563,890分享邀请回答22636 条评论分享收藏感谢收起2014.ckgsb.com/uploads//Carpenter%20Lu%20Whitelaw%-%20The%20Real%20Value%20of%20China's%20Stock%20Market.pdf
贴一段话：
This paper presents evidence that overturns two widely held
perceptions about China’s stock market and suggests that China would do well to
open this market to international investors and let it pick winners, too. First, we show that China’s stock market no
longer deserves its reputation as a casino. On the contrary, over the last
decade, the informativeness of stock
prices about future corporate earnings has increased steadily, reaching levels
that compare favorably with those in the US. Moreover, although China’s
financial market is largely inaccessible to foreign investors, the
cross-sectional pattern of its stock returns is strikingly similar to that in
global equity markets. Like global investors, Chinese investors pay up for
large stocks, growth stocks, and long shots, and discount for illiquidity and
market risk. In addition, the trend of stock price informativeness in China
over the last two decades is significantly positively correlated with the
efficiency of its corporate investment. Stock prices in China have become
strongly linked with firm fundamentals and appear to play an important role in
aggregating diffuse information and generating useful signals for managers.
Second, although the buy-and-hold return earned by
undiversified domestic investors in China’s stock market is depressed by the
market’s extremely high volatility, the market offers very attractive returns
to diversified international investors who can access them. Unlike stock
returns in integrated financial markets, stock returns in China exhibit very
low correlation with those in other large economies. At the same time, the
average monthly excess return on China’s stock market is twice that in the US. As a result, China offers high alpha with
respect to global risk factors to international investors who can access it.
However, this high alpha to potential international investors amounts to an
inflated cost of equity capital for China’s firms, constraining the investment
of its smaller and more profitable enterprises. In addition, the high
volatility of China’s stock market represents high systematic risk to Chinese
investors who cannot diversify it. Both of these problems would be mitigated by
opening financial capital flows between China and the global investment
community. Regulatory reforms over the last decade, such as the unlock of
state-owned shares, the introduction of the Qualified Foreign Institutional
Investor (QFII) program, and rules that have strengthened minority shareholder
protection, dividend policy, and disclosure, have done much to improve the
functioning of China’s stock market. But further reforms that liberalize
capital flows and improve stock price informativeness will be important to
increase China’s investment efficiency and fuel its continued economic growth.
3016 条评论分享收藏感谢收起　　港股又创反弹新高。截至5月12日，恒生指数报收25156.34点，年初以来已上涨14.34%，上一次恒生指数在25000点以上还要追溯到日。借助港股的走势，多只投资于港股的基金今年以来都取得不菲的收益，25只沪港深基金和66只QDII基金今年来收益超过10%。港股后市能否继续上涨？多数基金经理认为长期依然看好，但短期仍有风险。　　沪港深和QDII基金　　今年以来收益不菲　　沪上一家中型基金公司QDII基金经理称，此轮港股的上涨主要由三个因素导致。首先是宏观和微观的双重利好， 从去年下半年到今年一季度的经济数据表现良好，加之年报和一季度的业绩也有些超预期，这是宏观面 。　　在微观上，国家供给侧改革比较成功，传统产业盈利反转非常明显，钢铁、水泥等原先亏损的企业都在盈利；新经济方兴未艾，成长股、科技股的盈利增速相当好。 其次，自去年至今，港股的估值水平依旧较低。另外，沪港通和深港通更加剧了南下资金的活跃度，提高了港股的流动性。 　　嘉实前沿科技沪港深拟任基金经理张丹华表示，一季度有600亿美元资金南下，支撑了港股的上涨，从更长期的维度来看，实际上这个资金流入的过程是一个非常长期且非常缓慢的过程，只要有持续的资金流入，香港市场的估值中枢就会逐渐提升。　　 从两年左右的时间维度来说，影响港股市场最主要的还是资金因素，南下资金的体量、节奏和持续性，压倒了其它因素，包括利率、加息、汇率，中国企业基本面增长，这是支撑港股的一个主要因素。
　　正因为港股大涨，以港股为投资标的的基金实现了净值增长，在95只以港股为投资标的的内地基金中（不包括QDII），有25只年初至今实现了10%以上的收益，嘉实沪港深精选、东方红睿华沪港深、东方红沪港深、广发沪港深新起点和前海开源沪港深龙头精选净值上涨均超15%。QDII基金更是有超过60只收益在10%以上，交银中证海外中国互联网今年来收益更是高达30.3%。(来源:南^方^财^富^网)
相关文章推荐业绩持续回暖 港股基金收益领先
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　　市场概况：　　股票市场方面，沪深两市收益率分别为0.77%和0.62%，同期和数收益率为0.62%和-0.02%。　　从行业层面来看，本周全部行业实现正收益，涨幅居前的有、建筑、建材、电子设备、机械设备，涨幅分别为3.1%、2.62%、2.33%、2.32%、2.14%；国防与装备、商贸零售、交通运输涨幅居后，周涨幅分别为0.22、0.39%、0.50%。　　债券市场方面，中证全债指数收益率0.25%，本周中证收益率0.16%，中证收益率0.29%，转债指数收益率-0.30%。货币市场基金7天年化收益率较前期有所下降。本周最后一个交易日美元兑人民币中间价报6.8873元，较上周有所升值。　　权益类基金：　　本期采取主动操作策略的和混合基金，平均收益率分别为0.61%和0.42%，同期指数收益率为0.52%。基金本期平均收益率为0.54%。　　股票基金，平均收益率为0.61%，较上周有所上升，722只股票基金中约有95%的基金实现正收益或无亏损。收益分布区间为-0.7%-3.68%，差异化较前期有所缩小，收益居前的为广发沪港深股票、国泰大健康股票、，收益率分别为3.68%、3.37%、3.32%；收益居于末位的为兴全全球视野股票、、富国股票、工银新材料股票，收益率分别为-0.7%、-0.67%、-0.44%、-0.42%。　　混合基金，平均收益率为0.42%，较上周上升0.22个百分点，2268只中2061只收益非负，占比91%。收益率分布区间自-1.45%—6.71%，整体收益较上周有所上升，收益居于末位的为前海开源中国稀缺资产混合、金鹰灵活配置混合、安信中国制造混合，本周收益-1.45%、-0.86%、-0.8%；收益居前的基金为招商丰益混合A、招商丰凯混合A、信诚至诚B，周净值增长率分别为6.71%、6.34%和6.3%。　　ETF基金，本周平均收益率为0.54%，近97%的ETF基金实现正收益，其中，净值增长居前的有、、，收益率分别为3.98%、2.83%和2.81%；净值增长居后的有、50和，收益率分别为-0.25、-0.17%和-0.07%。　　固定收益类基金：　　平均收益率为0.06%，89%的中本周收益非负。其中，广发景华纯债、银华上证10年期C、华商稳固添利债券A收益率领先，本周收益率分别为1.19%、0.87%和0.66%；民生加银转债优选C、华安债券B、西部利得汇逸债券C收益率居后，本周收益率分别为-1.04%、-0.98%和-0.83%。　　货币市场基金期间平均7天年化收益率为3.44%，本周货币市场基金7天年化收益率较前期有所下降。收益率居前的有华夏财富宝货币B、中融现金增利货币C、，区间7日年化收益率均值为4.91%、4.62%、4.59%。　　基金：　　截至周五，QDII基金平均收益率为1.26%，期间净值增长居前的基金分别是银华恒生分级B、汇添富分级B、国富大中华精选混合(QDII)，收益率分别为7.98%、4.91%、4.72%。本周收益率不佳的QDII基金有：广发指数美元(QDII)、易方达标普医疗保健美元汇(QDII-)、。　　风险提示：　　本申购建议由证券研究所提供，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。　　上海东方财富证券研究所有限公司
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